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This seat use to be competitive and it appears that Kevin Hogan has built up a personal profile.
Labor has lost ground in towns like Casino and Grafton too
An expansion of parliament would likely see it loses Coffs harbour and gain ballina. When that happens i will argue for Richmond to become the “new seat” and name it after Mt warning. Page could shift south and Richmond move south as well that way they can preserve a federation division that’s actual includes its namesake
2019 was the difference maker. There was a big swing to Kevin Hogan. What happened? Was it connected to the backlash against Labor in regional QLD and the Hunter?
I know that Janelle Saffin, the last Labor MP, didn’t recontest as she had just won the state seat of Lismore. Her personal vote wasn’t there at the 2019 federal election.
@Ben Raue, just pointing out that most of the seat guide info is for Cook and not Page.
Yep – the big swing in towns that rely on primary industry – Mackay, Burnie, Cessnock etc
There’s nothing Labor can do to get this back.
What may have happened if it were Saffin vs a generic NAT? Think it would definitely be competitive at least
Nether Portal adding in parts of Ballina would probably make it more marginal and if Hogan retired it could be in play.
Some interesting discussion on the Indi and Wannon threads about Coalition/ONP prospects in certain rural seats. Like many coastal Nat-held seats there is a reasonably strong retiree population that should help hold up the Nats vote, and Hogan is a popular local MP, but more working class towns such as Grafton and Casino could see big shifts towards ONP. Lots of little towns as well, but many of them (especially in the north of the electorate) are Labor/Green friendly and of course Lismore itself is quite progressive.
Should polls be correct an ONP has indeed overtaken the Coalition comfortably – what might the 3CP look like here? Could Labor fall out?
@ Maxim
Great analysis, if you could look at Cowper next and maybe look at the Voice support in rural seats maybe that will show which rural seats are more progressive than others.
@Nimalan, SA Election and Farrer By Election has mostly shown ONP in the TPP does around 15-23% worse than the No Vote to the Voice but nevertheless there was correlation the area of the No Vote and ONP TPP Support.
Would it be fair to say that areas with both high Labor support and high ‘no’ vote could be liable to large swings from Labor to ONP unless they are highly diverse areas with a high Muslim or Arabian population? That seems to be what happened in Adelaide’s north at least
I think the largest Labor to ONP swings will be in outer suburban and regional electorates that are not culturally diverse and have few migrants and few degree holders. They also happen to be seats with the highest no votes at the voice referendum. More economically disadvantaged, multicultural seats like Fowler and Werriwa and seats with Muslim populations like Blaxland and Calwell, has yes votes close to or slightly more than average.
I’m interested to know how the Greens vote will swing with the One Nation surge. There is a sizeable chunk in Page. Some Greens voters may be the anti-establishment type or are against the two-party system. Then there are some who are anti-Coalition and want to see a weakened Coalition and so preferencing One Nation would help achieve this. They feel like they finally have some sway in a safe seat. There are also genuinely left-wing voters who see the Nationals as the more centrist option and “lesser of two evils”.
Ben
The text at the top of this page relates to Cook rather than Page. The graphics and the lower text relate to Page. Seems to be a glitch.
Kevin Hogan obviously has a very high personal vote. Despite the margin, this would be a seat up for grabs should he decide to retire. A major risk for the Nats is that MPs might decide it is easier to pull the plug than go down in a ditch if things still look grim in late 2027. Kevin Hogan will be 64 by the time the 2028 election rolls around so retiring would seem a logical option. I would put Michael McCormack in the same category. If they do go, all bets are off. In that case, ON could be in with a chance here, probably more so than Labor.
Redbridge Accent’s MRP shows a wipeout of all Nationals. MPs with strong personal brands and personal popularity can have a real fighting chance.
I reckon out of the 3 coastal NSW Nationals seats, Lyne would be most at-risk of flipping to One Nation. This depends on if sitting MPs choose to recontest or not.
agreed seats like Lyne seats with not really popular mps also I think of richmond are more vulnerable to those without